Friday, July 22, 2011

Summer Slowdown Buying Opportunity for Pandas

The first half of 2011 was an extremely intense period for for Chinese Pandas and Chinese modern coins. Beginning with the very strong Hong Kong Champion Auction in December 2010 through June, extremely strong buying from China, US, and Europe drained dealer stocks and drove prices skyward.

In July were are finally getting a rest. The summer doldrums that are typical in coin and precious metals markets have set in, allowing dealers to catch-up and re-stock. The relentless rise in prices has taken a pause, presenting an opportunity to buy many of the best coins while they are still available. We fully expect Chinese buying to resume in earnest this fall, accelerated by what may also be a rising gold bullion price.

Strong hands are now focused on buying some previously over-looked coins. Including:
  • 1/2oz Gold Pandas from 1990-2007
  • Gold Panda Proofs 1986-1994

The half ounce pandas have some of the overall lowest mintages of the series, but have been overlook in favor of the big 1oz coins. However, with most 1oz Pandas now trading over $2000 (and many at $3000+), the half ounce looks much more affordable. Mid 1990's dates are already scarce, but early 2000's are still possible to find, but are going fast.

The lowest mintage gold proofs, 1995 and 1996 are trading in 5 figures and are out of reach of many, but the earlier proofs, especially 1986-1991 are still reasonable. Mintages over this period were 10,000 to 3,500 coins, but prices do not yet fully reflect this scarcity.

Other current market trends include:
  • Very strong buying of MS69 and PR69 coins. The premium for 69 over 68 and raw coins has expanded.
  • Silver pandas of all types have been very strong despite the pull-back in silver bullion prices.

Silver panda mintages are much lower then US Eagles and other mainstream coins, and silver is more afordable to collectors worldwide. MS69 graded silver pandas and certified silver pandas in general are commanding a premium as buyers seek out quality and authenticity. As silver resumes its upward climb past $50, we expect to see silver pandas out-perform the metal.

We see a few pandas that remain "sleepers" with prices that do not reflect the scarcity. These include 1991, 1994, and 1997 gold 1oz, 1986-1989 proofs, as well as 2002, 2003, and 2004 of all sizes. Value seekers may want to consider these for the longer term.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

So if my family just found a 1982 1oz Panda thats a good thing!