2009 Panda Coin Mintage Limits Reached

The word from the coin dealer network is that 2009 mintage limits of the gold and silver pandas coins have been reached. Each year, China Gold Coin Inc (CGCI) designates a limit on how many Panda coins will be produced and sold for that mintage year. Due to the strong demand from the market, as of April 2009 those limits have been reached.

This means that no more 2009 Pandas will be coming into the market from CGCI. Dealer stock is the only remaining source, but as that is consumed, price premiums can be expected to rise.

Published 2009 Mintage Limits
1oz Gold: 160,000
1/2oz Gold: 60,000
1/4oz Gold: 60,000
1/10oz Gold: 100,000
1/20oz Gold: 100,000

1oz Silver: 600,000

1990's Gold Pandas - Low Mintage Sleepers

A recent comment raised a subject that I have been meaning to discuss for a while: I believe that the real surviving mintages for many of the Gold Panda coins of the 1990's is quite low.

The 1990's was a time of very low gold demand. Gold was declining in price and few collectors or investors were buying. Official mint sales limits were not met, and dealers could not sell the inventory of coins they had purchased.

Recent information published by the official Chinese Panda distributor has shown that the number of coins actually shipped by the mint at that time was much lower than what was officially published at the time. Ranging to as low as 4,000 coins for some issues.

I have heard from long time dealers that sales were so poor in those days, that many dealers were forced to liquidate thousands of unsold gold pandas by selling them to refiners to be melted down. It is unkown how many gold panda coins were lost. As one who watches the sales on ebay and other areas, I have observed that the mid-1990's Pandas are less common.

As investors and collectors worldwide move to gold and numismatics as a store of wealth against depreciating currencies, these coins are likely to emerge as unexpected rarities.

Have you got your 1990's Pandas?

Table of 1990s mintages click here

Bimetallic Pandas

There has been much attention lately to very low mintage pandas, with prices moving up rapidly. These would include the 1998 50Y Gold 1/2oz ($2500), the 1995 100Y Gold Proof ($6277), platinum pandas, and the 5oz, 12oz and kilogram Pandas. All of these have mintages less than 2500 peices, but a large and growing collector base whos number well exceed the mintage.

When there are more collectors than coins, prices move up. Typically, as the collector base grows, coins with populations near the supply/demand threshold will suddenly move up.

The bimetallic pandas represent a very attractive and collectible subset of the Panda series with very low mintages. Although already in short supply, prices have not yet reached the levels of the hot coins mentioned above. I believe the bimetallics will eventually meet and exceed these levels.

The bimetallic Pandas have a gold center with a silver outer ring, and are thinner than other pandas, but also wider in diameter, making them appear large for the bullion content. They were issued from 1990 through 1996, often in sets, with values from 10Y to 50

Denomination	Gold	Silver
10Y	1/10oz	1/28oz
25Y	1/4oz	1/8oz
50Y	1/2oz	1/5oz
500Y	5oz	2oz

In 1990 and 1991 bimetallic medals (no face value) were issued along with the coin and included in the mint set.

Official Mintage Limits:

Year	Denom.	Mintage
1990	50Y	2000
1990	1/2oz+1/5oz	2000
1991	25Y	10000
1991	1/4oz+1/8oz	2000
1992	10Y	2000
1993	25Y	2500
1994	10Y	3000
1994	25Y	2500
1995	10Y	2000
1995	25Y	2000
1995	50Y	2000
1995	500Y	199
1996	10Y	8000
1996	25Y	2500
1996	50Y	2500
1996	500Y	199
1997	10Y	2800
1997	25Y	2800
1997	50Y	2800
1997	500Y	199

Actual Mintages

The actual mintages of mid-1990s gold pandas has recently been acknowledged to be much lower than the published maximums. No actual figures have been published for the bimetallic, but given the time period, it seems certainly possible that actuals could be lower.

As a side note, based on apparent availability in the market today, the 1997 set seems to be more scarce despite its slightly higher official mintage figures.

The 10Y, 25Y, and 50Y were issued in 3-coins 1995, 1996, and 1997. The 1996 10Y was also issued separately, and this is reflected in the higher mintage figure.

Several Reference Pictures are shown below.

1995

1997

New Panda Coin Info Website

Pandacolletor.com is a new website dedicated to collecting Chinese Panda coins. It is not a promotional site, but rather a well researched informational site created by a dedicated collector.

I highly recommend this website for its original research into panda coin scarcity, including actual mintage figures and auction data, as well as its very complete set of coin images.

www.pandacollector.com

China's wealthiest investors set for gold spree

This article from Reuters is quite interesting, but attracted almost no attention in the broader press.

China's wealthiest investors are on the brink of ploughing as much as $68 billion into gold markets as they take profits from roaring share prices and steer clear of property, a top fund manager and bullion bull says. Wang Weilie, a pale, bespectacled 40-something who manages over 1 billion yuan ($135 million) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange on behalf of himself and clients, says the so-called "Zhejiang clique" are ready to pounce after Beijing opens up spot market bullion trading and a futures contract launches early next year.

After amassing an estimated 3 trillion yuan ($400 billion) from investing in red-hot real estate and stock markets which have risen five-fold in the past two years, the wealthy group from eastern China is looking for the next sure bet. Wang says that's gold, and expects the amount of Chinese capital invested in the bullion market to soar 100-fold to some 500 billion yuan ($67.5 billion) in the next two years -- a sum that could catapult China ahead of India as the world's top buyer.

"We all agreed that upside room on stocks was limited, as was upside on property prices. But the gold price has only increased minimally, even after 20 years of China's reform and market opening," Wang told Reuters during a lunch with three business partners in Lujiazui, Shanghai's financial hub. Coupled with inflation and global economic uncertainty, the redirection of Chinese capital towards domestic gold contracts will help spot prices more than double, says Wang, who says he once cornered two-thirds of the Chinese gold forward contract. "Spot gold prices will hit $2,000 in coming years," he said. Wang expects more than 15 percent of the capital currently invested in China's stock market to move to gold trading. China's total market capitalization peaked at about 35 trillion yuan in October, exceeding the country's gross domestic product. The main stock index tumbled nearly 20 percent last month while Beijing has continued tightening controls over the property sector to limit price gains.

Rare Silver Proof Pandas on Fire

One of the greatest sleepers in the Panda series appears to be taking off. While most of the silver Pandas issued have had mintages in the 200,000+ range, there are several little known issues with mintages from 8000 to 25000 peices. These are the 1983-1985 BU silver coins and the 1989-1996 Silver Proofs.

Mintages:

• 1983: 10,000
• 1984: 10,000
• 1985: 10,000
  
• 1989-P: 25,000
• 1990-P: 20,000
• 1991-P: 20,000
• 1992-P: 20,000
• 1993-P: 20,000
• 1994-P: 15,000
• 1995: 10,000
• 1996: 8,000
  

The 1983-1985 BU coins continue to increase in price steadily: currently in the $300-$500 Range when you can find them.

Since the BU silver Pandas often have a very proof-like finish, the proof versions have been often overlooked. In fact, the P mintmark may be all that distinguishes them in some years.

The 1995 and 1996 issues, however, have no P mark. The obverse panda design on the proofs is different from the BU coins. I have been amazed at the low prices of these rare coins, until recently. Over the last 8 months the prices have soared!

1995 Obverse:

1996 Obverse:

The 1989-P through 1994-P issues have also started to rise, moving from $30-50 and approaching $75-$100+.

Keep an eye on my Ebay store for rare silver and gold panda coins.

Jay's Rare Panda Coins

PCGS vs NGC Grading: Apples and Oranges

NGC and PCGS grades are not the same. As shown in the graph below, for 1982 Pandas, PCGS clearly uses much tougher criteria than NGC. NGC graded 44% of 82 Pandas as MS69, but PCGS only allowed 16% to reach that level. In fact, you have to add PCGS MS67 (12%), MS68(16%) and MS69(16%) to equal NGC's MS69 rate. One could conclude from this that a PCGS MS67 coin could be equated with an NGC MS69 for rarity.

Dealers have noticed this too. They have sent 3 times as many coins through NGC. Could it be because they know NGC will give a higher grade?

Collectors beware. If you care about accurate and meaningful grading, stick with PCGS.