2013 "Shanghai Memory" Jewish Ghetto Panda Coins - Beautiful Low Mintage Panda Medals

The Shanghai Mint has just produced a new and very interesting set of Panda medals commemorating 70th anniversary of the shelter of more than 18,000 European Jewish refugees in Shanghai during World War II.  Officially known as the "Designated area for stateless refugees", and also know as the "Shanghai Ghetto" or "Hongkew Ghetto".  The design of the medal represents the hospitality and humanitarianism of the Chinese people who offered the Jews refuge during the war.

The commemorative medals are a very unique and groundbreaking issue from the Shanghai Mint.  These medals have a number of important characteristics that will make them very desirable to collectors.  All are 99.9% pure gold or silver.

• First Panda medals minted with laser etched serial number
• First Chinese numismatic piece with a Jewish theme.
• Extremely low number of pieces produced
• Designed by famed mint designer Rocky Zhao with his father, legendary engraver Qiming Zhao

Exceptionally Low Mintages

We have not seen such low mintages Pandas since the 1990s.  One example would the the Zurich International Coin Expo 1 oz Panda medal, mintage 550, which sold at the recent Hong Kong Auction for
almost $5700 in PF68.

Here are the official mintages:

2013 Shanghai Memory	Mintage
5 oz Gold Panda	36
1 oz Gold Panda	570
1 oz Silver Panda	5773

The 5 oz gold was sold out from distributors via pre-orders before release.  In addition to the usual interest from Chinese collectors, demand from collectors of Jewish historical commemoratives has been very strong.


Laser-Etched Serial Numbers

The Shanghai Memory medals are all sequentially serialized with a number unique to the specific medal.  The 5 oz Gold are numbered #1 - 36, the 1 oz Gold  #1 - 570, and the silver #1 - 5773.  Each coin has a certificate (COA) with the matching number.

Serialization presents some interesting new possibilities for collectors.  As with serialized prints in the art world, early (lower numbered) coins may be considered more desirable, certain numbers may be more or less "auspicious", and matched sets can be created.

In fact, the lower numbered Shanghai Memory medals have been pre-packaged into gold and silver matched sets.  Each of the different coins in the set has the same serial number.  So in order to get the lower numbers, one must buy all of the available sizes.  For example, to get #35, you have to buy the 5 oz gold, 1 oz gold, and the 1 oz silver, all of which will have 35 etched.  Here is the serial number map.

Matched Sets	Serial Numbers
3-coin Premium Set 5 oz Gold 1 oz Gold 1 oz Silver	#01 - 36
Gold & Silver Box Set 1 oz Gold 1 oz Silver Special 2-coin Box	#37 - 200
Gold & Silver Paired Set 1 oz Gold 1 oz Silver Separate Boxes	#201 - 570
1 oz Silver with box	#571 - 5773

Packaging

The medals are all distributed with special packaging and materials.  

All come with:

• Glass-Top Display Box
• Torah-like scroll containing historical information.
• Certificate of Authenticity (COA)

Details

• The silver medals are not in sealed plastic packs - only capsules.
• #37 - 200 comes with a special glass-top display box which holds
• one 1oz Gold
• one 1 oz Silver
• one Scroll
• Single display box that holds both coins and the scroll
• Two individual COAs
• #201 - 570 are sold in matched pairs

• one 1oz Gold
• one 1oz Silver
• two separate glass-top display boxes, each with scroll.
• Two COAs
• #571 - 5773 are 1oz Silver only
• Glass-top display box
• scroll
• COA

Where is the Panda?

There is a Panda on this medal.  The girl under the umbrella is holding a panda doll!

Therefore this qualifies as a "Panda Coin"








Exquisitely Detailed and Full of Symbolism

The medals were commissioned by Danny Spungen, a major collector of Chinese coins as well as a researcher and collector of materials related to the Holocaust.

The medals are chock-full of symbolism.  A detailed guide can be found here.

The Chinese Coin Market - Where Next?

After the big run-up of gold Pandas this last spring, many market participants are now cautiously standing on the sidelines wondering where things are headed next. Here we present some analysis and food for thought.

As I have written in previous posts, there is a tendency toward sector rotation in many markets, coins included. This means that after one sector has a bull run resulting in high prices, buyers will begin to look for undervalued bargains elsewhere.  Often in sectors that have been ignored for a while.

Chinese coin sectors for consideration:  Gold Pandas (BU, Proofs, Medals), Silver Pandas, Lunar Animals, Cultural.

Gold BU Pandas
Having just finished a very heated run, many of the most appreciated coins have cooled.
Many buyers and sellers are waiting to see how prices settle-out.  Sales have slowed, but prices on most Pandas have not plunged. Crazy exceptions like 2002 1/10 are down quite a bit, but good solid 1990's gold pandas seem to be holding steady. There are just not many coins available to be sold, and most are now in strong hands.  These coins seem quiet now, but key dates like 1995 and 1998 will be increasingly scarce and may eventually command very high prices


Gold Panda Proofs
The gold proofs were not part of the Spring 2013 frenzy and are very cheap right now. The scarce 1995 and 1996 1oz proofs are down 50% off their highs of over $20K a few years ago. With mintages ~1000 coins, these look very cheap compared to BU pandas. 1990-1993 proofs are cheap as well. The bimetals are in the same category. A 1986 to 1996 proof set is a nice long term buy.

Panda Medals

The Panda Medals are non-monetary "coins" issued by the China Mint to commemorate major coin shows around the world. Medals were issued regularly from 1987 though the mid 1990s, usually with very low mintages; 500 - 2000 coins for gold, 10K or less for silver. These are not technically coins, since they have no face value, but they are generally considered part of the official Pandas series.

After a long hiatus, minting of the medals resumed in 2012 at the Singapore show, followed by Philadelphia ANA, Berlin, and Long Beach. More are expected to follow. The arrival of new medals has brought new attention to the series overall. After years of neglect, and given the very low mintages, the medals a ripe for a resurgence. The Panda medals appear undervalued and are a key series to watch.

Silver Pandas
Silver pandas are still well below highs of 2011. Key dates are still in demand. I don't expect fireworks in silver until silver bullion resumes its ascent toward $100/oz.

Lunar Animals
The Chinese Lunar Animals are a very beautiful, unique, and well made series proof coins. Each year several
are issued depicting one of the 12 Chinese animal zodiac symbols. They have been made in various interesting shapes and sizes, such as plum flower, fan, rectangular, as well as round. Some are colorized. The designs are intricate, distinctive and very attractive. Chinese collectors tend to buy one each year and then put it away forever...  And very importantly, the mintages are very low.

These coins have had run-ups before, but not for several years. The availability of coins for sale is low, so there is real potential for price spikes.  These coins are very marketable in China, so any promotional programs would have a powerful affect. They are easy to like. We place these high on our list of coins to watch and accumulate.

The Spring 2013 Panda Coin Surge

February, March, and April were very exciting months for the Chinese coin market, especially for gold Pandas.  As the price of gold paper contracts on the COMEX and London markets declined from $1700 to $1350 per ounce, Chinese panda collectors went into full buying mode, driving prices of most pre-2011 pandas up substantially.

A major driver of the buying surge was marketing program run by one or more Chinese banks which sold complete 1982-2012 "master sets" of BU gold pandas to high net worth collectors.  A master set is a complete set of all 1/20 oz to 1 oz gold panda coins for each year.  That would be 5 coins (1.9oz) for each year except 1982 which has only 4 coins (no 1/20 oz) - a total of 154 coins, 58.85 ounces, 31 years.  Major China coin dealers were contracted to build many of these sets, setting off a competitive buying spree worldwide, driving up prices of most pandas and sending a few key coins into the stratosphere.

The fierce buying quickly drained dealer inventories as well as ebay.  Soon, certain fractional coins were in short supply, preventing completion of sets. As we noted in past entries of this blog, dealer inventories were already low.  Chinese dealers had to outbid each other to get set completions.

As a result, some new panda scarcities were uncovered.  Surprisingly scarce coins and peak prices in late April:

1995 25Y 1/4 oz:  $5000
1995 50Y 1/2 oz:  $4500
2002 50Y 1/10 oz:  $3000   (that equals $30,000 per ounce!)
2006 50Y 1/10 oz:  $1000

The previously known scarce coins, 1998 all fractionals and 1994 1/2 oz also moved up.  1997 1/2s were tough to find as well.  1995 1 oz were over $5000.  Even "common" dates like 1985, 86, and 88 saw increases.

The master sets were mostly built with pandas that are not certified, with some dealers even buying and cracking-out MS69 coins to fill gaps.  The relative premiums on MS69 shrank as the prices for sealed and unsealed pandas increased.  Also, varieties and mints were completely ignored for master sets, so Large Date and Small Date differentials reduced as well.

The marketing programs ended in early May, so the demand for these coins has subsided and extreme prices have retreated.  However, we have learned of more Panda rarities.  The master sets were sold to long-term buy-and-hold collectors for wealth preservation, so it is unlikely many of these coins will re-appear on the market any time soon.   It seems very likely that the coins above will be increasingly expensive and difficult to find.

Dealer stocks of almost all pre-2011 Pandas are still very thin.  The summer doldrums will be a time to slowly re-stock, but North American supplies are now very depleted.  The next buying binge, whenever that occurs, should send some Pandas to new and extreme heights.  This most recent bull-run happened when gold was declining and there was almost no participation from US and European collectors.  What will happen when gold starts to go up again and the west gets on the gold bandwagon?

Summer is traditionally the quite time in the coin business...  and an excellent time to be a buyer.

Gold Drops, but Gold Panda Prices Go Up

The machinations of the paper gold traders on Wall Street may have pushed gold down toward $1550 per ounce, but Chinese buyers see that and conclude GOLD IS ON SALE!  买买买！Buy, Buy, Buy!

A post Chinese New Year buying rush into gold pandas is under way.  Increased promotion of Panda coins in particular is increasing awareness in China.  Thin dealer inventories mean that prices will go up on many coins.

The low gold price is prompting big increases in all physical gold sales across the board.  You local coin dealer is probably very busy.  This is very bullish.

Chinese Wait In Line to Buy Gold

From CNTV
http://english.cntv.cn/program/bizasia/20130105/102949.shtml

Looks like gold is as popular as iPhones.  People lining up out the door to buy...

Chinese snap up gold in new year

01-05-2013 10:31 BJT

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By Xu Fangliang

Gold is a popular investment option in China, particularly during the holidays. This past Christmas and New Year, demand was healthy.

During the three days of the New Year holiday, investors in Shanghai rushed to jewelry stores and lined up for hours in order to buy gold jewelry, gold bars and gold coins. Presented with increasing opportunities to buy gold, Chinese consumers seemed happy to put up with some inconvenience.

A buyer said, "I came here at 3 am. Thinking about buying gold kept me warm."

"Gold bar are great for maintaining their value," said another.

A shop worker says although the general economic environment is not so good, that actually has made for a better turnover.

Shao Xiaomeng, Manager Assistant st Shanghai First Asia Jewelry Company, said, "The sales during this new year’s holiday was very good, with consumers interested in gold investment. The line in front of our cashier was up to 20 meters long. Sales were up by more than 15 percent compared to last year."

Shao’s business growth reflects booming gold consumption nationwide. The World Gold Council says gold demand from China took up one third of total world demand last year. The purchase volume of gold bars alone in the mainland last year exceeded 200 tons, 50 percent up from a year earlier. What’s more, that figure does not include the Hong Kong market, where big growth occurred as well.

An expert says the increase in Chinese people’s income accounts for most of the increased purchasing.

Lian Ping, economist from the Bank of Communications, said, "Companies are getting richer, and so are people. It is important for them to find an asset that will maintain its value. The value of gold has increased substantially over the past few years. China’s increased gold consumption will help the country maintain its wealth."

While China now ranks ahead of even India as the world’s largest gold consumer, the country’s gold consumption per capita is only 4.6 grams, much less than the world average of 20 grams. The World Gold Council predicts gold consumption in China will double by the year 2020.

A Panda Coin Primer - Part 1

Interest in Chinese Panda coins is growing rapidly, but there is still a lack of readily available data about these coins.  The Buyer's Guide to Chinese Gold & Silver Panda Coins (2010) by Peter Anthony is an excellent book and a must have for any collector.  However, online resources are still limited, so we have provided some summary information and tables to help newcomers get their heads around the available collecting opportunities.  

A Panda Coin Primer - Part 1

The Panda Coin was born in 1982 with the creation of four gold bullion coins depicting the Chinese national symbol; the Panda Bear (熊猫). The coins were issued is four sizes, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 troy ounce of .999 pure gold.  These first pandas had no denomination (no face value in Yuan), so technically they are considered medals rather than coins.  However, in 1983 denominations were added making then coins, but 1982 has generally been "grandfathered-in" by collectors as the first panda "coin".

Over the next 32 years (to date), many denominations, types, and varieties of panda coins have been issued.  The following tables and notes give an overview of the Panda Coins Issued by China.

I. Precious Metals

Pandas have been produced in several different precious metals.  We will organize the coins by metal group in later sections.

Metal	Purity	Years Produced
Gold	99.9%	1982 - present
Silver	90%  99.9%  99.9%	1983 - 1985  1987  1989 - present
Platinum	99.9%	1987 - 1990  1993 - 1997  2002 - 2005
Paladium	99.9%	1988 - 1989  2004 - 2005
Bi-Metal  Gold & Silver	99.9%	1990 - 1997
Copper	70%	1983 - 1984
Bronze		1991

II. Gold Pandas

The gold pandas may be considered the flagship of the series.  The 99.9% pure gold coins have been issued every year since 1982 in many different sizes, strikes, mints, and varieties.  

The pandas can be divided in three main groups:  

• Brilliant Uncirculated (BU) Coins with denomination (face value)
• Proof Coins with denomination
• Official Commemorative panda medals with no face value

A. BU Gold Panda Coins

Brilliant Uncirculated coins, known as "BU" or "Mint State (MS), are generally mass produced.  BU Pandas have been made every year and represent what might be considered the standard panda coin.  Except for 1982, they were issued in 5 sizes, comprising 1.9 ounces for a full BU set each year.  The 5-coin annual sets are popular among Chinese collectors.

In 2001, the denominations were changed, but the weights remained (inflation!)

Note that varieties and mint types are not shown on this table.  We will cover that detail later.

Panda BU Coins Issued by Denomination (Yuan)

Weight (troy ounce)	1/20	1/10	1/4	1/2	1
1982		1/10	1/4	1/2	1
1983	5	10	25	50	100
1984	5	10	25	50	100
1985	5	10	25	50	100
1986	5	10	25	50	100
1987	5	10	25	50	100
1988	5	10	25	50	100
1989	5	10	25	50	100
1990	5	10	25	50	100
1991*	5	10	25	50	100
1992	5	10	25	50	100
1993	5	10	25	50	100
1994	5	10	25	50	100
1995	5	10	25	50	100
1996	5	10	25	50	100
1997	5	10	25	50	100
1998	5	10	25	50	100
1999	5	10	25	50	100
2000	5	10	25	50	100
2001	20	50	100	200	500
2002	20	50	100	200	500
2003	20	50	100	200	500
2004	20	50	100	200	500
2005	20	50	100	200	500
2006	20	50	100	200	500
2007	20	50	100	200	500
2008	20	50	100	200	500
2009	20	50	100	200	500
2010	20	50	100	200	500
2011	20	50	100	200	500
2012	20	50	100	200	500
2013	20	50	100	200	500

In 1991, a 10th anniversary commemorative 3 Yuan, 1 gram BU coin was added.

How to Collect:

• The Chinese method is to collect every size coin for a given year - 1.9 oz per year
• Americans often choose a weight and collect all the years of that size
• More advanced options include collecting varieties (covered later) or certified high grade coins such as MS69 or MS70.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

B.  Gold Panda Proofs

Proof coins are traditionally produced with a different process then BU coins.  A proof is not a high quality BU coin, rather it is a coin produced by a special method:  Dies and planchets are specially polished, and each coin is struck multiple times to produce a very sharp and often mirror-like coin.  However, today's high quality mass-produced BU coins are often so sharp and shiny that they may look proof-like, so the China mint has helped us identify proofs by providing Certificates (COA) and somtimes a special "P" mark on the coin.

Proof Gold Panda Coins Issued by Denomination (Yuan)

Weight (troy ounce)	1/20	1/10	1/4	1/2	1	5	12	1 Kg (32 oz)
1986-P	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1987-P	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1988-P	5	10	25	50	100	500	1000
1989-P	5	10	25	50	100
1990-P	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1991-P*	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1992-P	5	10	25	50	100	500	1000
1993-P	5	10	25	50		500	1000
1994-P	5	10	25	50		500	1000
1995					100		1000
1996					100
1996 15th An.		10	25		100
1997								2000
1998
1999								2000
2000								3000
2001								10000
2002								10000
2003								10000
2004								10000
2005						2000		10000
2006						2000		10000
2007**						2000		10000
2008						2000		10000
2009						2000		10000
2010						2000		10000
2011						2000		10000
2012						2000		10000
2012 30th An.						2000
2013						2000		10000

*In 1991, a 10th anniversary commemorative 50 Yuan, 1 ounce "piefort" (double thick) proof and a xxxx Yuan, 5 Kg (160 oz) proof coin were added.

**In 2007 a 25th anniversary 3 yuan, 1/25oz gold set of 25 coins was issued

How to Collect:

• If you can afford them, the jumbo-size coins are true rarities that are coveted worldwide.
• 1986 to 1992 sets
• 1986 to 1994 5, 10, 25, or 50 Yuan
• 100 Yuan Proofs 1986-92, 95, and 96

Part 2 will cover Gold Panda Medals

Strategies for Collecting Panda Coins

The ongoing financial crises is gradually leading many people to consider investment in hard assets, such as artwork, precious metals, and numismatic coins.  As a result, many people, both in the West and in Asia, are now entering the Chinese coin market.  Below is a basic outline of the Gold and Silver Chinese Panda coin market, along with some broad recommendations.

Panda Coin Overview

Beginning in 1982, the Chinese government began issuing gold bullion coins depicting the the China national symbol of the Panda Bear.  The coins were sold primarily to foreigners as a way to raise foreign exchange revenue and as a way to enhance Chinese prestige around the world.  At the time, gold was still near all-time highs and there was a shortage on coined gold bullion worldwide (only Krugerrand and Maple leafs were available).

Although initially intended as a pure bullion coin, the Pandas quickly began to appeal to collectors worldwide, especially in the US and Germany.  The coins feature and attractive new panda design each year, are available in several sizes of both gold and silver, and are produced in very limited quantities.

• Gold panda sizes 1/20, 1/10. 1/4, 1/2, 1, 5 and 12 oz as well as 1 kg coins many years
• Silver panda sizes:  1, 5 and 12 oz, 1 kg, and some 1/2 oz.
• Most were issued as BU coins, with proof coins available on certain dates only, usually marked with a "P" on the coin.

Collector Appeal of Panda Coins

• Attractive designs that change each year
• Very Low mintages compared to other national bullion coins
• Chinese legal tender status
• .999 gold and silver purity
• Availability in multiple sizes/denomination to match collector budgets
• Many interesting varieties to explore and collect.
• A very large and growing collector market in China and worldwide
• A market that is not yet mature, where many rare types of coins are not yet prohibitively expensive

Identify Your Collecting Goals

Before diving into coin collecting of any type, it is important to evaluate your collecting goals, since this will help inform what you should buy.  There are three man categories on participants, you may overlap into more than one category, but one may be your primary interest:

• The Collector
• The Bullion Buyer
• The Speculator / Investor

The Collector

The collector is interested in the beauty of the coins, the thrill of the chase to complete a collection, and the satisfaction and bragging rights achieved from building a great collection. 

For the collector, Pandas provide a bonanza of early stage opportunity.  Mintages of pandas are generally small, and there are many interesting types and varieties that are just now being discovered.  It is still possible to complete full collections of coins at reasonable prices to fit a budget when compared to low mintage US coins.  If you have sharp eye, you may be able to be one of the first identify a new/future rarity!

We highly recommend the Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book by Peter Anthony, and you can find many links to panda-related websites on the right side of this page.

How to collect:

• Chinese collectors prefer collecting all coins from a single date (1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1oz from a given year)
• US collectors prefer to collect all dates of a given size (ex 1/2oz pandas from every date).  
• Certified coins are preferred in the US and gaining interest in China

Collector Sets:

• Date set - every date of a given coin size
• Variety date set - every date and variety of a given size
• Chinese set - all sizes of a given date
• Grade set - all MS68 or MS69 (or all MS70 if you dare)
• 1980's set
• 1990s set
• 2000's set
• Proofs or Proof sets
• Gold, silver, or platinum depending on budget and preference.

The Bullion Buyer

If you are looking to buy gold or silver bullion at a low premium, you may be too late to get into Chinese pandas.  While gold Maples, Eagles, and Krugerrands currently sell in a range of 3% to 4% over spot gold, current year pandas sell from major dealer at about 5% over spot.   Silver Maples and Eagles sell at $2 to $4 premium, while current year (2012) silver Pandas have a premium of $7 or more over spot silver.   This is  a function of strong collector demand and low mintage production.  These coins sell-out every year in recent times.

Furthermore, most older date Pandas trade at very hefty premiums.  20-30% is common and many dates can trade at 2x to 3x multiples of spot.  Special varieties trade even higher.   Lowest cost gold "common" dates are 1986-88 and 2010-2012.  Many silver pandas other then 2010-12 trade over $100 each.

As a bullion buyer, if you are looking for a little speculative zest in your portfolio, you way want to consider some pandas.  It is possible that even common dates may perform better than pure bullion.  Current year coins have historically gained 2-3% premium within 1-2 years. However, selling high-premium pandas requires a little patience.  The typical "we buy gold" outfit will not pay you any more than spot price for a panda, so you will need to sell to a specialist dealer or on ebay.

Recommended bullion-play pandas:

• 1986-1988 and 2010-2012 gold.
• Low-grade certified coins (MS66-MS68) or loose coins with slight marks usually trade below market.

The Investor and Speculator

If you are reading this, you are probably already convinced gold and silver are a good long term way to preserve and protect wealth, but you may be looking for something a little more interesting than gold bars, or  boring American Eagles. Chinese gold and silver pandas may have the extra potential you are looking for!

The Chinese coin market is still very young compared the mature, saturated, and well documented US coin market.  While US coins may do well in the future, most of the best rarities have already been identified and priced into the stratosphere.  It is unlikely you will make 2x or 3x your money on any US coin in a reasonable time period.   

Chinese coins, on the other hand, are just now being discovered.  New varieties of coins are being identified each year, and new collectors are entering the market daily.  The new and growing Chinese upper and middle class now have the money and the interest to buy their own national coins, and indeed they are buying heavily with government encouragement.  Over the past 3 years, numerous key panda varieties have more than doubled in market value.  We expect this trend may continue over the next several years.

For the investors, we recommend:

• MS69 certified Pandas free of spots
• Lower mintage varieties (mint types) and special issue pandas
• Years 1990 to 2000 are established as the most scarce
• 2001 to 2006 are showing speculative potential
• 1982 is the first year and a key date always in demand
• 83-85 and 89, and 86-90 proof sets also have potential as good value "sleepers"
• 1986-88 trade closer to bullion but may see out-sized gains as gold gains momentum.
• Platinum and Palladium coins were issued for a few years and are scarce