Summer is traditionally the slow time in the gold market as well as the coin market. Summer 2011 was an exception with gold rising and Chinese coins seeing the greatest demand in decades. June 2012 is quiet and gold appears trapped in a trading range. While North American buyers have been reluctant to take advantage of lower prices, and in some cases liquidating coins at a loss, bargain hunters in Asia are very active.
Buyers from China are less interested in high grade MS69 and MS70 coins, and instead prefer sealed, unsealed, and MS67-68 coins available at lower prices. This has lead to a narrowing of the MS69 premium over lower grade coins. Last year, a good 1oz MS69 may have carried a premium over 30-50% over sealed of MS68. Today 20-30% is a typical range over sealed coins, and MS68s even trade at a discount to sealed.
Chinese collectors prefer to build a full set of coins for each year - all 5 sizes from 1/20 to 1oz. The strong Chinese buying has exposed shortages of certain of the smaller panda fractional coins, driving up prices on some unexpected dates. Examples include 2000 and 2002 1/4oz MS68 near $900. 2000 1/20 over $300, 2006 1/10oz over $600.
Even more importantly, Chinese buying has been continuous and relentless over the last 6 months. The modest dealer inventories that remained at the end of 2012 have been further drained. As recently as 2 years ago, Pandas could be easily found in local coin shops, and dealers would sell for a small percentage over spot. Today, Pandas are almost never present in shops that are not specialists in Chinese coins. When talking to local dealers, one will often hear comments such as "we used to have a lot of Chinese coins, but not anymore" and "when we get them, they usually sell very quickly in a day or two."
A famous quote of Ross Perot comes to mind: "That whooshing sound you hear is..." ...all of the Panda Coins in North America heading back home to China. Chinese buyers are not flipping these coins for a quick profit. They are looking for safe assets to protect wealth. Just as we are seeing wealthy Chinese buying prime California real estate, Chinese coin buyers have strong hands and are keeping these coins for the long term.
I believe this is setting up the next great leg up in the Chinese coin market. When the gold re-ignites, as I expect it will when QE3 follows the next crisis, the very thin remaining inventories of Chinese gold coins will disappear, and prices on many ordinary Pandas will skyrocket.
Now is the time to re-enter the market. It may be the last train out at these prices.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Saturday, June 16, 2012
Hong Kong Exchange Buys London Metals Exchange
Acquisition of gold and other hard assets is being encouraged by the Chinese government on many levels. Perhaps they are well aware of the debasement game being played by world central banks and see hard assets in Chinese possession as a defensive strategy.
The recent purchase of the London Metals exchange (LME) by the Hong Kong Exchange is just the latest step in what appears to be an ongoing process. The LME is the one major exchange, other than HK, outside of China, which trades physical gold (COMEX is only paper contracts). This may be a good way to gain better access to the physical gold market (as well as other key metals).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303734204577467912492917718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"The deal could immediately prop up HKEx to become one of the major global metals and commodities exchanges," Hong Kong Exchanges Chief Executive Charles Li said.
LME accounts globally for 80% of trade in nonferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as other industrial metals.
The recent purchase of the London Metals exchange (LME) by the Hong Kong Exchange is just the latest step in what appears to be an ongoing process. The LME is the one major exchange, other than HK, outside of China, which trades physical gold (COMEX is only paper contracts). This may be a good way to gain better access to the physical gold market (as well as other key metals).
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303734204577467912492917718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
"The deal could immediately prop up HKEx to become one of the major global metals and commodities exchanges," Hong Kong Exchanges Chief Executive Charles Li said.
LME accounts globally for 80% of trade in nonferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as other industrial metals.
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Chinese Panda Gold Promotional Video
Here is a link to a very professional Chinese language video promoting investment in Gold Pandas. It depicts the sophistication and traditional value of gold Pandas as an investment. It appears to have credits for the People's Bank of China and the China Gold Coin Incorporation (CGCI).
It reflects the growing important of "Chinese" gold products in China, as well as the general official encouragement of gold ownership.
The video includes English subtitles
It reflects the growing important of "Chinese" gold products in China, as well as the general official encouragement of gold ownership.
The video includes English subtitles
Wednesday, May 02, 2012
Singapore Coin Fair Pandas
In the 1980's and 1990's, China frequently issued special panda commemoratives to mark important international numismatic shows, such as Munich, San Francisco, Basil, and others. This tradition, dormant since 1997, has been revived with and exciting new issue for the 2012 Singapore Coin Fair.
The low mintages and attractive design of this set of pandas should be very appealing to Chinese coin collectors.
The production of the generic "standard issue" pandas has grown dramatically in recent years to meet staggering demand. The 2012 1oz Silver pandas will reach an incredible 8,000,000 and the 1/2oz gold 600,000. The generic 5oz silver: 50,000 and the generic 5oz Gold: 5,000. Compared to the standard issue 2012 Pandas, the Singapore show numbers are minuscule! These are on par with 1990's Panda proofs and show medals.
Adding even more potential to these Pandas, collectors have begun to identify unique varieties of each of the Singapore coins. The 5 oz Silver has 3 known varieties, generated as a result of a broken die during minting. The one ounce and the gold are also likely to have sub-types not yet identified. Varieties are good because each type will have a very low mintage, making each a potential rarity.
Demand for these coins at the Signapore show was strong, and the 5oz Gold is now reportedly sold out at the distributor. Current sales of the other coins continues to be brisk.
This is a rare opportunity to acquire some very special low mintage pandas. Once the the modest quantities are sold out, prices are likely to rise.
The low mintages and attractive design of this set of pandas should be very appealing to Chinese coin collectors.
| 2012 Singapore Show Pandas | Mintage |
| 1 oz Silver Panda | 10,000 |
| 5 oz Silver Panda | 2,500 |
| 1/2 oz Gold Panda | 2,500 |
| 5 oz Gold Panda | 99 |
The production of the generic "standard issue" pandas has grown dramatically in recent years to meet staggering demand. The 2012 1oz Silver pandas will reach an incredible 8,000,000 and the 1/2oz gold 600,000. The generic 5oz silver: 50,000 and the generic 5oz Gold: 5,000. Compared to the standard issue 2012 Pandas, the Singapore show numbers are minuscule! These are on par with 1990's Panda proofs and show medals.
Adding even more potential to these Pandas, collectors have begun to identify unique varieties of each of the Singapore coins. The 5 oz Silver has 3 known varieties, generated as a result of a broken die during minting. The one ounce and the gold are also likely to have sub-types not yet identified. Varieties are good because each type will have a very low mintage, making each a potential rarity.
Demand for these coins at the Signapore show was strong, and the 5oz Gold is now reportedly sold out at the distributor. Current sales of the other coins continues to be brisk.
This is a rare opportunity to acquire some very special low mintage pandas. Once the the modest quantities are sold out, prices are likely to rise.
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
Will China Buy All The Gold?
Selling coins worldwide, I have the opportunity to see which parts of the world are running to gold at any particular point in time. Sometimes its America, sometimes Europe, sometimes China. What is interesting (and somewhat disturbing) is that Americans tend to buy late in a run-up when the price is high, but the Chinese buy most when the price is lower. They buy when the big banks, futures markets, and the Fed are putting gold on sale.
Right now, America is asleep as the worlds currencies continue their slow implosion. However, China is buying gold with both fists. Like a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking up every bit of gold they can get from Americans in exchange for bits of US Government paper dollars.
Right now, America is asleep as the worlds currencies continue their slow implosion. However, China is buying gold with both fists. Like a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking up every bit of gold they can get from Americans in exchange for bits of US Government paper dollars.
Monday, January 30, 2012
Spring Festival sparks a 'gold rush' in China
The China Daily reports a 50% increase in gold sales at stores during Chinese New Year this year.
"People seem crazy about gold , snatching it up more like a 'cheap cabbage ' than such a precious metal ,"..
BEIJING - A "gold rush " swept through China during the week-long Lunar New Year holiday this year , with demand for precious metals and jewelry surging since the Year of the Dragon began .Sales of gold , silver and jewelry rose 57.6 percent during the week-long holiday at Caibai , one of Beijing 's best-known gold retailers , according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC ) on Saturday .Other jewelry stores across the country also saw sales boom during the period , with customers favoring New Year-themed gold bars , gold ingots and other types of Dragon-themed jewelries ."Long treasured by Chinese , gold is no longer owned only by a privileged few , but has become a new investment channel open to all ," said Guan Qiang , assistant manager at Caibai .
The Spring Festival gives people a chance to preserve and present gold as gifts , offering hopes that it will increase in value and not be impacted by inflation , Guan said .During the week-long holiday , which lasted from January 22 to 28, the sales volume in Caibai and Guohua , another of Beijing 's top gold retailers , reached about 600 million yuan ($95.28million ).The figure showed a 49.7-percent increase over that of last year 's Spring Festival , said a report released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce .Caibai began selling gold bars as investment items during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games , but the trend of buying gold or silver bars during the Spring Festival has really taken off in the past two years , Guan said .For Guan and his colleagues , the Spring Festival rush was an exciting but exhausting experience , as customers flooded the store and surprised clerks with their purchasing enthusiasm ."With customers crowding and rushing in , we did not even have time to eat and drink ," said a sales clerk at the gold bar counter surnamed Li .
She said each shop assistant had received hundreds of customers per day and wrote several times more orders than on ordinary days ."You can hardly even see the gold bars , necklaces and pendants in the display case . People seem crazy about gold , snatching it up more like a 'cheap cabbage ' than such a precious metal ," said Beijing resident Miao Miao .
"You have to quickly decide whether to make a purchase , or it will be taken away by others ."
Link to full article
Link to full article
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Chinese Coin Dealers are Quietly Buying Again
Chinese coin dealers were required to prepay for 2012 Panda and Lunar Dragon coins, locking up a big chunk of cash in December. Now that Pandas and Dragons have been delivered and are being sold to the public, their cash situation has improved. Dealer end-of-year liquidations have abated and Chinese dealers are quietly buying again.
Gold is still much in demand in China. As their cash positions improves, Savvy China dealers will be looking to take advantage of lower prices behind the scenes. They will not chase prices and bid up auctions just yet, but buy they will...
We feel that Chinese coin prices have largely stabilized and some coins are beginning to recover. Now that gold is over $1650, China expected to ease rates, and more QE on the horizon to bail out Europe, those looking to pick-up bargains may want to act soon.
Gold is still much in demand in China. As their cash positions improves, Savvy China dealers will be looking to take advantage of lower prices behind the scenes. They will not chase prices and bid up auctions just yet, but buy they will...
We feel that Chinese coin prices have largely stabilized and some coins are beginning to recover. Now that gold is over $1650, China expected to ease rates, and more QE on the horizon to bail out Europe, those looking to pick-up bargains may want to act soon.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
China Private Gold Savings
The forces behind the Chinese coin market.....
and....
China’s Gold Imports From Hong Kong Climb to Record on Investment Demand
China’s gold imports from Hong Kong surged to a record as consumers bought the metal before the Lunar New Year this month and investors sought to hedge against financial turmoil. Bullion rallied to a four-week high.
Mainland China bought 102,779 kilograms from Hong Kong in November, up from 86,299 kilograms in October, according to the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. China doesn’t publish gold trade data.
Demand for gold is climbing in China as investors seek to protect their wealth against slumping property prices and equity markets amid an inflation rate above 4 percent. The nation overtook India in the third quarter as the largest gold jewelry market, according to the World Gold Council. The country is also the biggest producer. Bullion rose as much as 0.9 percent to $1,647.45 an ounce today, the highest since Dec. 13.
“China’s appetite for gold is very strong and growing,” said Tao Jinfeng, chief investment consultant at Haitong Futures Co., China’s largest brokerage by registered capital. “The few months before the Lunar New Year is typically the peak demand period for Chinese people.” The weeklong holiday begins Jan. 23. more...
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-11/china-s-gold-imports-from-hong-kong-climb-to-record-on-investment-demand?category=%2F Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Chinese Central Banker Declares That 'Gold Is The Only Safe Haven Left'
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/zhang-jianjua-gold-safe-haven-2011-12#ixzz1jBxBLEZd
China is making an even bigger move toward gold in reaction to money printing around the world (via @JamesGRickards).
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/zhang-jianjua-gold-safe-haven-2011-12#ixzz1jBxOkXrv
China is making an even bigger move toward gold in reaction to money printing around the world (via @JamesGRickards).
People's Bank of China official Zhang Jianhua declared yesterday: "No asset is safe now. The only choice to hedge risks is to hold hard currency - gold."
Zhang, the bank's research director, recommended buying the dips: "The Chinese government should not only be cautious of the imported risk caused by rising global inflation, but also further optimize its foreign-exchange portfolio and purchase gold assets when the gold price shows a favorable fluctuation."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/zhang-jianjua-gold-safe-haven-2011-12#ixzz1jBxOkXrv
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Buying Panda Coins on Ebay
Chinese Pandas have very low mintages compared to US modern coins, and they are dispersed widely around the the world. Ebay is one of the few places where a large number of Pandas are available for sale 24/7, worldwide.
Ebay and its subsidiary Paypal have significant strengths and weaknesses that are important for anyone trading Chinese coins to understand.
Ebay Strengths
Ebay is excellent for connecting buyers and sellers of chinese coins. Finding coins to buy and comparing prices has never been easier.
Paypal provides fraud protection for both buyers and sellers. If a seller's coin is not as advertised, or not delivered. a buyer can get refunded by Paypal if the seller is uncooperative. Similarly, if a buyer doesnt pay, files a fraudulent chargeback, or tries to use a stolen credit card, Paypal will cover the loss. This very valuable feature allows both parties to have the confidence to make high value transactions online.
Nevertheless, be cautions of sellers like these:
We also recommend buying Pandas certified by PCGS or NGC only, unless you are very knowledgeable and can identify fakes, or you are working with a seller who you trust to identify fakes for you. This will be very important when it comes time to sell.
Ebay and Paypal Fees
The seller pays all Ebay and Paypal fees.
Ebay Powerseller fees vary from 11% for items under $50 and drop to about 2.3% ($114) for a $5000 fixed price item. New ebay sellers will pay 20% more ($137 on $5000) until they are established.
Paypal fees depend on monthly volume. About 2.9% for low volume sellers scaling to 1.9% for those processing more than $100K per month. Typically, its about $110 on a $5000 coin.
Overall, the seller has to carry at least 5% in fees on a sales over $1000. In a business where margins are often 5% or less, this is a huge tax. As a business necessity, very often this fee is embedded in the listed price. It effectively inserts 5% into the bid/ask spread that buyer will have to pay.
Clearly, the value of Ebay and Paypal services are diminished once buyer and seller know and trust each other. Ebay and Paypal fail to consider trusted party transactions in their current pricing structure. As a result, many sales go "offline" in order for reasonable deals to be made.
How to save 5%
If you already have a good relationship with a seller, you may want to ask the seller if he has any coins he can sell "off-line" with a payment by check in exchange for a price discount of 4-5% off a comparable Ebay listed item. The seller will net the same amount and you save a few hundred dollars!
It is against Ebay policy to negotiate off-line sales through the Ebay message system, or to renegotiate items already purchased through Ebay. However Ebay does not have jurisdiction over sales conducted entirely outside of Ebay. So it is best to use the sellers direct email address or a phone call to make this kind of deal. Ask if he has any other coins like the one you saw on Ebay, but at a lower price.
Note that you will not have the Ebay/Paypal buyer protections, so be sure you trust the seller to deal fairly.
Until Ebay and Paypal adjust fees to better match the needs of the coin market, this is a good way to pay less for good coins from reputable sellers.
Auctions
Many of the best coins will be listed at a fixed price, waiting for a discerning collector to come along. However, sometimes Pandas come up or sale on Ebay as an auction rather than at a fixed price. There are three reasons why a seller would use an aution.
Sometimes coins are underbid because the coin has problems or the seller is unkown to collectors. Sellers who "dont know" or "dont care" about pandas, may not be able or willing to properly disclose issues and stand behind their coins.
Auctions can be fun and sometimes good bargains can be found. However, a relationship with a good dealer can help you avoid costly mistakes.
Ebay and its subsidiary Paypal have significant strengths and weaknesses that are important for anyone trading Chinese coins to understand.
Ebay Strengths
- Worldwide market with many coins listed
- An large pool of active buyers and sellers of Chinese coins
- Fees that are lower than most major coin auction houses like Heritage and Bowers
- Paypal has excellent buyer and seller protections against fraud
- The seller rating system is not sophisticated and doesn't communicate a sellers character.
- Unknowledgeable sellers and expert sellers are difficult to distinguish
- It can be difficult to identify problem coins vai photos alone.
- Scammers occasionally sneak by ebay screening systems, especially in China, and collecting on buyer protections can be a hassle.
- Ebay and Paypal fees are still quite high compared to face-to-face deals.
Ebay is excellent for connecting buyers and sellers of chinese coins. Finding coins to buy and comparing prices has never been easier.
Paypal provides fraud protection for both buyers and sellers. If a seller's coin is not as advertised, or not delivered. a buyer can get refunded by Paypal if the seller is uncooperative. Similarly, if a buyer doesnt pay, files a fraudulent chargeback, or tries to use a stolen credit card, Paypal will cover the loss. This very valuable feature allows both parties to have the confidence to make high value transactions online.
Nevertheless, be cautions of sellers like these:
- A history of selling $2 trinkets and then suddenly start selling $2000 coins
- Gold coins selling under spot
- Photos that are "stock" or copied from another seller
- Photos that are not of the exact coin
- Blurry or dark photos
- Prices that are way out of line from other sellers or the price trend.
We also recommend buying Pandas certified by PCGS or NGC only, unless you are very knowledgeable and can identify fakes, or you are working with a seller who you trust to identify fakes for you. This will be very important when it comes time to sell.
Ebay and Paypal Fees
The seller pays all Ebay and Paypal fees.
Ebay Powerseller fees vary from 11% for items under $50 and drop to about 2.3% ($114) for a $5000 fixed price item. New ebay sellers will pay 20% more ($137 on $5000) until they are established.
Paypal fees depend on monthly volume. About 2.9% for low volume sellers scaling to 1.9% for those processing more than $100K per month. Typically, its about $110 on a $5000 coin.
Overall, the seller has to carry at least 5% in fees on a sales over $1000. In a business where margins are often 5% or less, this is a huge tax. As a business necessity, very often this fee is embedded in the listed price. It effectively inserts 5% into the bid/ask spread that buyer will have to pay.
Clearly, the value of Ebay and Paypal services are diminished once buyer and seller know and trust each other. Ebay and Paypal fail to consider trusted party transactions in their current pricing structure. As a result, many sales go "offline" in order for reasonable deals to be made.
How to save 5%
If you already have a good relationship with a seller, you may want to ask the seller if he has any coins he can sell "off-line" with a payment by check in exchange for a price discount of 4-5% off a comparable Ebay listed item. The seller will net the same amount and you save a few hundred dollars!
It is against Ebay policy to negotiate off-line sales through the Ebay message system, or to renegotiate items already purchased through Ebay. However Ebay does not have jurisdiction over sales conducted entirely outside of Ebay. So it is best to use the sellers direct email address or a phone call to make this kind of deal. Ask if he has any other coins like the one you saw on Ebay, but at a lower price.
Note that you will not have the Ebay/Paypal buyer protections, so be sure you trust the seller to deal fairly.
Until Ebay and Paypal adjust fees to better match the needs of the coin market, this is a good way to pay less for good coins from reputable sellers.
Auctions
Many of the best coins will be listed at a fixed price, waiting for a discerning collector to come along. However, sometimes Pandas come up or sale on Ebay as an auction rather than at a fixed price. There are three reasons why a seller would use an aution.
- the market is hot or the coin is very rare and he hopes that his coin will be bid higher than previous sales
- he doesn't know what the coin is worth and lets the auction decide
- he doesn't care to maximize his selling price and just wants to liquidate quickly
Sometimes coins are underbid because the coin has problems or the seller is unkown to collectors. Sellers who "dont know" or "dont care" about pandas, may not be able or willing to properly disclose issues and stand behind their coins.
Auctions can be fun and sometimes good bargains can be found. However, a relationship with a good dealer can help you avoid costly mistakes.
Sunday, November 06, 2011
Panda Coin Buying Opportunity
Like any market, the Panda coin market goes through short term cycles. After very powerful moves in spring and summer of 2011, it looks like this fall is a time of consolidation. With a pull-back in gold from $1950 down to the 1600's, many newer entrants in the market are now hesitating. Some are selling. Did the market peak? Will pandas go down from here?
Whatever the reasons, there are now many excellent quality Pandas available on the market, and overheated prices have pulled back. Key dates and rarities are still quite strong and going higher, but many excellent coins are now re-appearing at good prices.
The old-timers and market savvy collectors see pull-backs as a prime opportunity to find good deals. Major dealers are happily re-stocking at bargain prices. This is the time to buy!
Chinese dealers are buying in full force, raiding US inventories for any gold panda from 1990 to 2003. Certain dates are targeted for accumulation, including 2000 to 2003 gold panda sets. They know to strike when the coins are available, and they are expecting renewed Chinese market strength in December and January.
Gold fundamentals are stronger than ever. We will see $2000 gold soon. The European debt crises illustrates how deep the economic rot has become worldwide. Chinese investors are looking to store wealth outside of the weakening real-estate sector and outside of paper currencies. This trend will continue.
Key coins to watch:
High Flyers - look for deals that wont last:
Whatever the reasons, there are now many excellent quality Pandas available on the market, and overheated prices have pulled back. Key dates and rarities are still quite strong and going higher, but many excellent coins are now re-appearing at good prices.
The old-timers and market savvy collectors see pull-backs as a prime opportunity to find good deals. Major dealers are happily re-stocking at bargain prices. This is the time to buy!
Chinese dealers are buying in full force, raiding US inventories for any gold panda from 1990 to 2003. Certain dates are targeted for accumulation, including 2000 to 2003 gold panda sets. They know to strike when the coins are available, and they are expecting renewed Chinese market strength in December and January.
Gold fundamentals are stronger than ever. We will see $2000 gold soon. The European debt crises illustrates how deep the economic rot has become worldwide. Chinese investors are looking to store wealth outside of the weakening real-estate sector and outside of paper currencies. This trend will continue.
Key coins to watch:
- 1989 BU Gold, all sizes (maybe not as common as we thought!)
- 1989-P proofs
- 1990-P proofs
- 1992 and 1993 still in thin supply
- 2000 frosted (1oz and 1/2 already pushing $3000), all sizes
- All 1/2oz Pandas
High Flyers - look for deals that wont last:
- 1998 small and large dates
- 1999 all types still strong
- 1995 - ready to catch up to 1998?
- 91, 92, 93 and 94 proof sets are still being acquired by strong hands
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Global Gold Demand
The graphic below shows that physical gold trading in the US is just a quite backwater. China and India are doing the buying, hand-over-fist.
Chinese gold coins were sold only to foreigners for decades, but now they are being brought back home by eager Chinese buyers. As the China real estate market falters, wealthy Chinese are seeking new places to preserve wealth. That place is gold!
The US panda coin market has been slow in October, but Chinese dealers are buying from US dealers on the weakness. Prices for many Pandas are decoupling from spot gold, and did not decline appreciably despite a $300 drop in gold. Prices on many pandas may not be this low again, and will likely surge with the next run-up in gold.
This represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Gold Pandas will be sold to Chinese investors. Will they buy the coins from you or someone else?
Chinese gold coins were sold only to foreigners for decades, but now they are being brought back home by eager Chinese buyers. As the China real estate market falters, wealthy Chinese are seeking new places to preserve wealth. That place is gold!
The US panda coin market has been slow in October, but Chinese dealers are buying from US dealers on the weakness. Prices for many Pandas are decoupling from spot gold, and did not decline appreciably despite a $300 drop in gold. Prices on many pandas may not be this low again, and will likely surge with the next run-up in gold.
This represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Gold Pandas will be sold to Chinese investors. Will they buy the coins from you or someone else?
Monday, October 17, 2011
Hong Kong Coin Show
In August, I attended the 2011 Hong Kong International Coin Convention. The Hong Kong show is the world's #1 show for Chinese Modern coins, and I wanted to get the pulse of the market in Asia.
Compared to the major coin shows in the US, the HK show is physically small, occupying a little more than a ballroom at the Holiday Inn in Kowloon. Surprisingly, the show floor is about 70% occupied with watch dealers - a throwback to when coin and watch dealers needed to join forces to draw enough visitors. However, now it appears that the fairly small contingent of dealers in Chinese coins attracts the majority of traffic.
Attendance at the show was overwhelming. The bourse floor was so packed with people, that you couldn't walk the aisle or see the dealer tables without pushing your way between bodies. US shows feel like a leisurely stroll in a spacious mall by comparison.
Just prior to the first day opening, a large contingent of dealers from the Chinese mainland descended on the tables of the major US and European dealers, each elbowing their way into position to try to be the first in line to buy. It was very clear that these wholesale buyers were very hungry for any new material they could find to feed what must be very strong demand in Shanghai and Beijing.
As I have mentioned previously in this blog, most Pandas and many other Chinese modern coins were exported to the west up until about 2001. Therefore, most of the desirable coins are outside of China and are now making their way home.
For coin dealers, the first day of the show could be described as a feeding frenzy. Buying was fast and furious, and there was little or no negotiation for the most desired coins. To say that money was being thrown at coins would not be an overstatement. At times, paper money was actually thrown on the counter to try to close a deal.
Before and after the show, there were coin auctions in nearby hotels held by Baldwin, Spectrum, and Champion. The Champion auction was focused entirely on modern Chinese coins and had the most high-end coins overall.
The next show will take place in early December.
Compared to the major coin shows in the US, the HK show is physically small, occupying a little more than a ballroom at the Holiday Inn in Kowloon. Surprisingly, the show floor is about 70% occupied with watch dealers - a throwback to when coin and watch dealers needed to join forces to draw enough visitors. However, now it appears that the fairly small contingent of dealers in Chinese coins attracts the majority of traffic.
Attendance at the show was overwhelming. The bourse floor was so packed with people, that you couldn't walk the aisle or see the dealer tables without pushing your way between bodies. US shows feel like a leisurely stroll in a spacious mall by comparison.
Just prior to the first day opening, a large contingent of dealers from the Chinese mainland descended on the tables of the major US and European dealers, each elbowing their way into position to try to be the first in line to buy. It was very clear that these wholesale buyers were very hungry for any new material they could find to feed what must be very strong demand in Shanghai and Beijing.
As I have mentioned previously in this blog, most Pandas and many other Chinese modern coins were exported to the west up until about 2001. Therefore, most of the desirable coins are outside of China and are now making their way home.
For coin dealers, the first day of the show could be described as a feeding frenzy. Buying was fast and furious, and there was little or no negotiation for the most desired coins. To say that money was being thrown at coins would not be an overstatement. At times, paper money was actually thrown on the counter to try to close a deal.
Before and after the show, there were coin auctions in nearby hotels held by Baldwin, Spectrum, and Champion. The Champion auction was focused entirely on modern Chinese coins and had the most high-end coins overall.
The next show will take place in early December.
Friday, July 22, 2011
Summer Slowdown Buying Opportunity for Pandas
The first half of 2011 was an extremely intense period for for Chinese Pandas and Chinese modern coins. Beginning with the very strong Hong Kong Champion Auction in December 2010 through June, extremely strong buying from China, US, and Europe drained dealer stocks and drove prices skyward.
In July were are finally getting a rest. The summer doldrums that are typical in coin and precious metals markets have set in, allowing dealers to catch-up and re-stock. The relentless rise in prices has taken a pause, presenting an opportunity to buy many of the best coins while they are still available. We fully expect Chinese buying to resume in earnest this fall, accelerated by what may also be a rising gold bullion price.
Strong hands are now focused on buying some previously over-looked coins. Including:
The half ounce pandas have some of the overall lowest mintages of the series, but have been overlook in favor of the big 1oz coins. However, with most 1oz Pandas now trading over $2000 (and many at $3000+), the half ounce looks much more affordable. Mid 1990's dates are already scarce, but early 2000's are still possible to find, but are going fast.
The lowest mintage gold proofs, 1995 and 1996 are trading in 5 figures and are out of reach of many, but the earlier proofs, especially 1986-1991 are still reasonable. Mintages over this period were 10,000 to 3,500 coins, but prices do not yet fully reflect this scarcity.
Other current market trends include:
Silver panda mintages are much lower then US Eagles and other mainstream coins, and silver is more afordable to collectors worldwide. MS69 graded silver pandas and certified silver pandas in general are commanding a premium as buyers seek out quality and authenticity. As silver resumes its upward climb past $50, we expect to see silver pandas out-perform the metal.
We see a few pandas that remain "sleepers" with prices that do not reflect the scarcity. These include 1991, 1994, and 1997 gold 1oz, 1986-1989 proofs, as well as 2002, 2003, and 2004 of all sizes. Value seekers may want to consider these for the longer term.
In July were are finally getting a rest. The summer doldrums that are typical in coin and precious metals markets have set in, allowing dealers to catch-up and re-stock. The relentless rise in prices has taken a pause, presenting an opportunity to buy many of the best coins while they are still available. We fully expect Chinese buying to resume in earnest this fall, accelerated by what may also be a rising gold bullion price.
Strong hands are now focused on buying some previously over-looked coins. Including:
- 1/2oz Gold Pandas from 1990-2007
- Gold Panda Proofs 1986-1994
The half ounce pandas have some of the overall lowest mintages of the series, but have been overlook in favor of the big 1oz coins. However, with most 1oz Pandas now trading over $2000 (and many at $3000+), the half ounce looks much more affordable. Mid 1990's dates are already scarce, but early 2000's are still possible to find, but are going fast.
The lowest mintage gold proofs, 1995 and 1996 are trading in 5 figures and are out of reach of many, but the earlier proofs, especially 1986-1991 are still reasonable. Mintages over this period were 10,000 to 3,500 coins, but prices do not yet fully reflect this scarcity.
Other current market trends include:
- Very strong buying of MS69 and PR69 coins. The premium for 69 over 68 and raw coins has expanded.
- Silver pandas of all types have been very strong despite the pull-back in silver bullion prices.
Silver panda mintages are much lower then US Eagles and other mainstream coins, and silver is more afordable to collectors worldwide. MS69 graded silver pandas and certified silver pandas in general are commanding a premium as buyers seek out quality and authenticity. As silver resumes its upward climb past $50, we expect to see silver pandas out-perform the metal.
We see a few pandas that remain "sleepers" with prices that do not reflect the scarcity. These include 1991, 1994, and 1997 gold 1oz, 1986-1989 proofs, as well as 2002, 2003, and 2004 of all sizes. Value seekers may want to consider these for the longer term.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
China buying up world's gold bars and coins
Below is a link to mainstream article that notes the massive Chinese buying of gold.
This is the force driving the rapid price increase of gold Pandas and other Chinese gold and silver coins.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/20/markets/china_gold/index.htm
CNN Money.com
Ken Sweet, contributing writer, On Friday May 20, 2011, 3:47 pm EDT
China edged out India to become the world's largest buyer of investment-grade gold products, according to a World Gold Council report.
In the first quarter, Chinese consumers purchased 90.9 metric tonnes in gold bars and coins, valued at $4.1 billion.
That's more than double the amount Chinese consumers were buying year ago. It's also more than the 85.9 metric tonnes bought by Indian consumers during the first three months of the year.
"Persistent high inflation levels in [both countries] continued to motivate investment in gold," the organization's analysts wrote in a research report.
India still dominates the gold jewelry market, buying 206.2 metric tonnes in the first quarter, compared with China's 142.9 metric tonnes.
China and India account for nearly half of all gold products sold during the first quarter, said the World Gold Council.
"You have a growing middle class that has increasing disposable income that is also concerned about upward inflation pressures," said Carlos Sanchez, a precious metals analyst with independent metals research firm CPM Group.
Sanchez expects China's market to continue to grow noticeably for the foreseeable future as the country's economy expands.
This is the force driving the rapid price increase of gold Pandas and other Chinese gold and silver coins.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/20/markets/china_gold/index.htm
CNN Money.com
Ken Sweet, contributing writer, On Friday May 20, 2011, 3:47 pm EDT
China edged out India to become the world's largest buyer of investment-grade gold products, according to a World Gold Council report.
In the first quarter, Chinese consumers purchased 90.9 metric tonnes in gold bars and coins, valued at $4.1 billion.
That's more than double the amount Chinese consumers were buying year ago. It's also more than the 85.9 metric tonnes bought by Indian consumers during the first three months of the year.
"Persistent high inflation levels in [both countries] continued to motivate investment in gold," the organization's analysts wrote in a research report.
India still dominates the gold jewelry market, buying 206.2 metric tonnes in the first quarter, compared with China's 142.9 metric tonnes.
China and India account for nearly half of all gold products sold during the first quarter, said the World Gold Council.
"You have a growing middle class that has increasing disposable income that is also concerned about upward inflation pressures," said Carlos Sanchez, a precious metals analyst with independent metals research firm CPM Group.
Sanchez expects China's market to continue to grow noticeably for the foreseeable future as the country's economy expands.
Monday, March 07, 2011
Massive Chinese Gold Buying
3/7/2011
The serious Panda buying took off in January and February. Gold BU pandas with 1990's dates were purchased in large quantity by Chinese buyers, draining dealer stocks. Coins such as 1996 and 1991 gold pandas that were readily available last summer are now difficult to find.
The list of "sold-out" dates now includes these 1oz Gold Pandas:
1991
1992
1993
1995
1996
1998
1999 serif and small date
2000 Mirror
2001-D
Most Gold Panda Coin Show Medals
The following are still available, but perhaps not for long:
1990
1994
1997
1999 large date
2000 frosted
2002
2003
Half-ounce pandas are even more scarce for all 1990's dates.
Silver Pandas are also seeing heavy buying, pushing premiums up to $20 - $80 over spot for many dates
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Gold Panda Coin Prices Show Continued Strength
Gold Panda coin prices have continued to increase since my last post in September. Demand from investors and collectors in China is reaching a fever pitch, with the most rare coins selling for very impressive prices to Chinese buyers.
Chinese coins with mintage 1000 or less are going for record prices (if you can find then at all). The "2nd tier" coins with mintages below 2500, are moving up rapidly as collectors seek to obtain these coins while there are still available.
Off the Charts
These coins have had major moves and are nearly impossible to find. The $5000-$12000 prices on these coins is 2-3 times what it was a year ago!
- 1992-P Gold Panda Proofs
- 1995 Gold Panda Proofs
- 1996 Gold Panda Proofs
- 1994-96 Gold Unicorn Proofs
Rising Rapidly
Certain date variety Pandas are also skyrocketing due to an apparent shortage of available coins. No mintage data is available for specific varieties, but the market is telling us which coins are the most rare. Expect to pay $3000+ for the 1oz coin of the following types!
- 1999 Gold Panda Large Date with Serif (all sizes)
- 1998 Gold Panda Large Date (all sizes)
- 2000 Mirror (all sizes)
- 2001-D (all sizes)
Near Term Potential
Looking ahead, price pressure is building on the following coins:
- 1991 Gold Panda Proof sets
- 1990 Gold Panda Proof sets
- 1998 Gold Panda Small Date (all sizes)
- 1995 Gold Panda (all sizes)
Small Panda Coins
Although I have not covered them in detail here, many of the fractional Pandas (1/2oz and lower) have risen in substantially price as Chinese collectors rush to assemble complete date sets. Often the 1/2oz or 1/4oz coin is the most rare coin in the set. Example dates are 1994, 1995, 1998.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Low Mintage Gold Panda Coin Varieties Heat up
The Chinese gold Panda coin market has been heating up over the past several months. Low mintage and low population varieties have disappeared from dealer inventories as prices have soared.
As recently as one year ago, nearly every date and variety of gold panda was readily available on ebay and major dealers. Today, the list of "unobtainable" coins is growing, partially as a result of strong demand from China. Strong Chinese demand for full dates sets (all sizes of the coin for a given date) has put a lot of pressure on the more scarce coins in each set, especially the fractional sizes. All Panda coins with mintage or population of less than 2000 have seen major price increases, and my guess is that anything in the 2000-5000 range is next.
Difficult (and expensive) gold panda coins now include:
- 1995 all types and sizes
- 1998 large date, all sizes
- 1998 small date fractionals (1/2, 1/4, 1/10, 1/20)
- 2000 mirror
- Coin show panda medals with low mintage under 1000
- 1992, 1995, 1996 proofs
- All bimetal pandas
- Most fractional size pandas from the 1990's
Some candidates to soon move into scarcity may be:
- 1991-P Proofs
- 1990-P Proofs
- 1999 large date with serif
- 2002 pandas
- 2003 pandas
- 2004 panda
- 1997 small date
- Other 1990's date types with lowest population
- Panda Coin show medals with mintage over 1000
1982 and 1983 Pandas have remained stable, but the coveted MS69 grade has become very tough to come by for these dates. PCGS and NGC are not kind to the early date pandas, so top grade prices will continue to reflect this. MS68 premiums are strong as a result of very high MS69 prices.
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Comprehensive Guide Book to Panda Coins
Exciting news for Panda coin collectors! We finally have a comprehensive English language guide book which details all of the coins in the series.The just published Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide by Peter Anthony is a comprehensive 208 page reference book that is a must-have for any serious Panda collector. The guide covers every Panda coin issued by the China Mint from 1982 until today. Full color images are provided for nearly every coin, as well as valuable background information and mintage data. We highly recommend this excellent new book.
Of great interest to collectors, Mr. Anthony has published the first estimates of current surviving Panda coin populations. Over the years, many Panda coins have be mishandled, used for jewelry, and melted for scrap. This has resulted in some surprisingly small remaining populations for many coins in the series. This information is sure to change the landscape of the Panda coin market as many common coins are suddenly appear to be a lot less common!
Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide is available now at Rare Panda Coins as well as Amazon.com
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Chinese Citizens are Rushing into Gold
Chinese citizens are rushing into gold, as shown in this news report of precious metals shops packed with buyers. The Chinese middle class of 300 million people is moving to protect its savings.
The Chinese government is buying and mining gold, and it is encouraging its citizens to put savings into gold as well. History shows that nations with the most gold have the most power. What are you doing to protect yourself from the currency crisis?
The Panda coin series fills only a small portion of Chinese gold demand, and mintages of many dates are very low. Some of the more scarce dates are disappearing into strong hands. These gold coins may become the Chinese equivalent of the US "Double Eagle" - desired by collectors and investors for generations.
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