A Panda Coin Primer - Part 1

Interest in Chinese Panda coins is growing rapidly, but there is still a lack of readily available data about these coins.  The Buyer's Guide to Chinese Gold & Silver Panda Coins (2010) by Peter Anthony is an excellent book and a must have for any collector.  However, online resources are still limited, so we have provided some summary information and tables to help newcomers get their heads around the available collecting opportunities.  

A Panda Coin Primer - Part 1

The Panda Coin was born in 1982 with the creation of four gold bullion coins depicting the Chinese national symbol; the Panda Bear (熊猫). The coins were issued is four sizes, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1 troy ounce of .999 pure gold.  These first pandas had no denomination (no face value in Yuan), so technically they are considered medals rather than coins.  However, in 1983 denominations were added making then coins, but 1982 has generally been "grandfathered-in" by collectors as the first panda "coin".

Over the next 32 years (to date), many denominations, types, and varieties of panda coins have been issued.  The following tables and notes give an overview of the Panda Coins Issued by China.

I. Precious Metals

Pandas have been produced in several different precious metals.  We will organize the coins by metal group in later sections.

Metal	Purity	Years Produced
Gold	99.9%	1982 - present
Silver	90%  99.9%  99.9%	1983 - 1985  1987  1989 - present
Platinum	99.9%	1987 - 1990  1993 - 1997  2002 - 2005
Paladium	99.9%	1988 - 1989  2004 - 2005
Bi-Metal  Gold & Silver	99.9%	1990 - 1997
Copper	70%	1983 - 1984
Bronze		1991

II. Gold Pandas

The gold pandas may be considered the flagship of the series.  The 99.9% pure gold coins have been issued every year since 1982 in many different sizes, strikes, mints, and varieties.  

The pandas can be divided in three main groups:  

• Brilliant Uncirculated (BU) Coins with denomination (face value)
• Proof Coins with denomination
• Official Commemorative panda medals with no face value

A. BU Gold Panda Coins

Brilliant Uncirculated coins, known as "BU" or "Mint State (MS), are generally mass produced.  BU Pandas have been made every year and represent what might be considered the standard panda coin.  Except for 1982, they were issued in 5 sizes, comprising 1.9 ounces for a full BU set each year.  The 5-coin annual sets are popular among Chinese collectors.

In 2001, the denominations were changed, but the weights remained (inflation!)

Note that varieties and mint types are not shown on this table.  We will cover that detail later.

Panda BU Coins Issued by Denomination (Yuan)

Weight (troy ounce)	1/20	1/10	1/4	1/2	1
1982		1/10	1/4	1/2	1
1983	5	10	25	50	100
1984	5	10	25	50	100
1985	5	10	25	50	100
1986	5	10	25	50	100
1987	5	10	25	50	100
1988	5	10	25	50	100
1989	5	10	25	50	100
1990	5	10	25	50	100
1991*	5	10	25	50	100
1992	5	10	25	50	100
1993	5	10	25	50	100
1994	5	10	25	50	100
1995	5	10	25	50	100
1996	5	10	25	50	100
1997	5	10	25	50	100
1998	5	10	25	50	100
1999	5	10	25	50	100
2000	5	10	25	50	100
2001	20	50	100	200	500
2002	20	50	100	200	500
2003	20	50	100	200	500
2004	20	50	100	200	500
2005	20	50	100	200	500
2006	20	50	100	200	500
2007	20	50	100	200	500
2008	20	50	100	200	500
2009	20	50	100	200	500
2010	20	50	100	200	500
2011	20	50	100	200	500
2012	20	50	100	200	500
2013	20	50	100	200	500

In 1991, a 10th anniversary commemorative 3 Yuan, 1 gram BU coin was added.

How to Collect:

• The Chinese method is to collect every size coin for a given year - 1.9 oz per year
• Americans often choose a weight and collect all the years of that size
• More advanced options include collecting varieties (covered later) or certified high grade coins such as MS69 or MS70.

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B.  Gold Panda Proofs

Proof coins are traditionally produced with a different process then BU coins.  A proof is not a high quality BU coin, rather it is a coin produced by a special method:  Dies and planchets are specially polished, and each coin is struck multiple times to produce a very sharp and often mirror-like coin.  However, today's high quality mass-produced BU coins are often so sharp and shiny that they may look proof-like, so the China mint has helped us identify proofs by providing Certificates (COA) and somtimes a special "P" mark on the coin.

Proof Gold Panda Coins Issued by Denomination (Yuan)

Weight (troy ounce)	1/20	1/10	1/4	1/2	1	5	12	1 Kg (32 oz)
1986-P	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1987-P	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1988-P	5	10	25	50	100	500	1000
1989-P	5	10	25	50	100
1990-P	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1991-P*	5	10	25	50	100		1000
1992-P	5	10	25	50	100	500	1000
1993-P	5	10	25	50		500	1000
1994-P	5	10	25	50		500	1000
1995					100		1000
1996					100
1996 15th An.		10	25		100
1997								2000
1998
1999								2000
2000								3000
2001								10000
2002								10000
2003								10000
2004								10000
2005						2000		10000
2006						2000		10000
2007**						2000		10000
2008						2000		10000
2009						2000		10000
2010						2000		10000
2011						2000		10000
2012						2000		10000
2012 30th An.						2000
2013						2000		10000

*In 1991, a 10th anniversary commemorative 50 Yuan, 1 ounce "piefort" (double thick) proof and a xxxx Yuan, 5 Kg (160 oz) proof coin were added.

**In 2007 a 25th anniversary 3 yuan, 1/25oz gold set of 25 coins was issued

How to Collect:

• If you can afford them, the jumbo-size coins are true rarities that are coveted worldwide.
• 1986 to 1992 sets
• 1986 to 1994 5, 10, 25, or 50 Yuan
• 100 Yuan Proofs 1986-92, 95, and 96

Part 2 will cover Gold Panda Medals

Strategies for Collecting Panda Coins

The ongoing financial crises is gradually leading many people to consider investment in hard assets, such as artwork, precious metals, and numismatic coins.  As a result, many people, both in the West and in Asia, are now entering the Chinese coin market.  Below is a basic outline of the Gold and Silver Chinese Panda coin market, along with some broad recommendations.

Panda Coin Overview

Beginning in 1982, the Chinese government began issuing gold bullion coins depicting the the China national symbol of the Panda Bear.  The coins were sold primarily to foreigners as a way to raise foreign exchange revenue and as a way to enhance Chinese prestige around the world.  At the time, gold was still near all-time highs and there was a shortage on coined gold bullion worldwide (only Krugerrand and Maple leafs were available).

Although initially intended as a pure bullion coin, the Pandas quickly began to appeal to collectors worldwide, especially in the US and Germany.  The coins feature and attractive new panda design each year, are available in several sizes of both gold and silver, and are produced in very limited quantities.

• Gold panda sizes 1/20, 1/10. 1/4, 1/2, 1, 5 and 12 oz as well as 1 kg coins many years
• Silver panda sizes:  1, 5 and 12 oz, 1 kg, and some 1/2 oz.
• Most were issued as BU coins, with proof coins available on certain dates only, usually marked with a "P" on the coin.

Collector Appeal of Panda Coins

• Attractive designs that change each year
• Very Low mintages compared to other national bullion coins
• Chinese legal tender status
• .999 gold and silver purity
• Availability in multiple sizes/denomination to match collector budgets
• Many interesting varieties to explore and collect.
• A very large and growing collector market in China and worldwide
• A market that is not yet mature, where many rare types of coins are not yet prohibitively expensive

Identify Your Collecting Goals

Before diving into coin collecting of any type, it is important to evaluate your collecting goals, since this will help inform what you should buy.  There are three man categories on participants, you may overlap into more than one category, but one may be your primary interest:

• The Collector
• The Bullion Buyer
• The Speculator / Investor

The Collector

The collector is interested in the beauty of the coins, the thrill of the chase to complete a collection, and the satisfaction and bragging rights achieved from building a great collection. 

For the collector, Pandas provide a bonanza of early stage opportunity.  Mintages of pandas are generally small, and there are many interesting types and varieties that are just now being discovered.  It is still possible to complete full collections of coins at reasonable prices to fit a budget when compared to low mintage US coins.  If you have sharp eye, you may be able to be one of the first identify a new/future rarity!

We highly recommend the Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book by Peter Anthony, and you can find many links to panda-related websites on the right side of this page.

How to collect:

• Chinese collectors prefer collecting all coins from a single date (1/20, 1/10, 1/4, 1/2, and 1oz from a given year)
• US collectors prefer to collect all dates of a given size (ex 1/2oz pandas from every date).  
• Certified coins are preferred in the US and gaining interest in China

Collector Sets:

• Date set - every date of a given coin size
• Variety date set - every date and variety of a given size
• Chinese set - all sizes of a given date
• Grade set - all MS68 or MS69 (or all MS70 if you dare)
• 1980's set
• 1990s set
• 2000's set
• Proofs or Proof sets
• Gold, silver, or platinum depending on budget and preference.

The Bullion Buyer

If you are looking to buy gold or silver bullion at a low premium, you may be too late to get into Chinese pandas.  While gold Maples, Eagles, and Krugerrands currently sell in a range of 3% to 4% over spot gold, current year pandas sell from major dealer at about 5% over spot.   Silver Maples and Eagles sell at $2 to $4 premium, while current year (2012) silver Pandas have a premium of $7 or more over spot silver.   This is  a function of strong collector demand and low mintage production.  These coins sell-out every year in recent times.

Furthermore, most older date Pandas trade at very hefty premiums.  20-30% is common and many dates can trade at 2x to 3x multiples of spot.  Special varieties trade even higher.   Lowest cost gold "common" dates are 1986-88 and 2010-2012.  Many silver pandas other then 2010-12 trade over $100 each.

As a bullion buyer, if you are looking for a little speculative zest in your portfolio, you way want to consider some pandas.  It is possible that even common dates may perform better than pure bullion.  Current year coins have historically gained 2-3% premium within 1-2 years. However, selling high-premium pandas requires a little patience.  The typical "we buy gold" outfit will not pay you any more than spot price for a panda, so you will need to sell to a specialist dealer or on ebay.

Recommended bullion-play pandas:

• 1986-1988 and 2010-2012 gold.
• Low-grade certified coins (MS66-MS68) or loose coins with slight marks usually trade below market.

The Investor and Speculator

If you are reading this, you are probably already convinced gold and silver are a good long term way to preserve and protect wealth, but you may be looking for something a little more interesting than gold bars, or  boring American Eagles. Chinese gold and silver pandas may have the extra potential you are looking for!

The Chinese coin market is still very young compared the mature, saturated, and well documented US coin market.  While US coins may do well in the future, most of the best rarities have already been identified and priced into the stratosphere.  It is unlikely you will make 2x or 3x your money on any US coin in a reasonable time period.   

Chinese coins, on the other hand, are just now being discovered.  New varieties of coins are being identified each year, and new collectors are entering the market daily.  The new and growing Chinese upper and middle class now have the money and the interest to buy their own national coins, and indeed they are buying heavily with government encouragement.  Over the past 3 years, numerous key panda varieties have more than doubled in market value.  We expect this trend may continue over the next several years.

For the investors, we recommend:

• MS69 certified Pandas free of spots
• Lower mintage varieties (mint types) and special issue pandas
• Years 1990 to 2000 are established as the most scarce
• 2001 to 2006 are showing speculative potential
• 1982 is the first year and a key date always in demand
• 83-85 and 89, and 86-90 proof sets also have potential as good value "sleepers"
• 1986-88 trade closer to bullion but may see out-sized gains as gold gains momentum.
• Platinum and Palladium coins were issued for a few years and are scarce

Chinese Coin Market Update 9/16/2012

For those who have been waiting for signs that the Chinese coin market is ready to make a new move up, Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi fired the starting gun last week.  Almost immediately, new coin orders started pouring in.  Bargain priced pandas on ebay have been snapped up, and prices are moving up again.

As I have mentioned here and on CCF, dealer inventories of Chinese coins are very thin.  If you have your eye on a key coin, you may want to buy it now before it is gone.  Thant includes most gold pandas from 1991 though 2004.  Silver pandas are also regaining strength.   Prices will be going up.

1996 100Y Gold Panda 15th Anniversary Varieties

The 1996 100Y 1oz Gold Panda 15th Anniversary is a very low mintage coin within the Gold Panda series.  The official mintage total is only 3,800 coins.  Given the widespread melting of gold pandas in the 1990's, the surviving population could be much smaller.

Two varieties of this coin have been identified.  I do not know if these are correlated with different mints or die lots, so if anyone knows, please let me know.  The difference lies in the position of the 1996 date.  One of the dates of oddly off-center under the temple.

It is not yet known which of these is more rare, but the very existence of two clear varieties make the 1996 15th a potential long term candidate as a scarce panda superstar.

1995 100Y 15th Anniversary Gold Panda  1996 100Y 15th Anniversary Gold Panda Centered Date Off-Center Date

2012 Philadelphia ANA Coin Show Pandas

The success of the Singapore ICF medals earlier this year no doubt lead to the issuance of medals for the Philadelphia ANA show.   By most accounts, demand for the Philly ANA pandas was stronger than for the Singapore offering.

Compared to the huge numbers of Panda coins produced by the mint in recent years, the low mintages of these medals make them an especially appealing way to get in on the ground floor of a relatively scarce issue.  In addition, the medals are especially appealing to American collectors due to the Liberty Bell depicted on the back.

2012 Singapore Show Pandas	Mintage
1 oz Silver Panda	10,000
5 oz Silver Panda	2,500
1/2 oz Gold Panda	N/A
5 oz Gold Panda	99

This is a rare opportunity to acquire some very special low mintage pandas.  Once the the modest quantities are sold out, prices are likely to rise.

 

Panda Coin Market Update 6/30/2012

Summer is traditionally the slow time in the gold market as well as the coin market.  Summer 2011 was an exception with gold rising and Chinese coins seeing the greatest demand in decades.  June 2012 is quiet and gold appears trapped in a trading range.  While North American buyers have been reluctant to take advantage of lower prices, and in some cases liquidating coins at a loss, bargain hunters in Asia are very active.  


Buyers from China are less interested in high grade MS69 and MS70 coins, and instead prefer sealed, unsealed, and MS67-68 coins available at lower prices.  This has lead to a narrowing of the MS69 premium over lower grade coins.  Last year, a good 1oz  MS69 may have carried a premium over 30-50% over sealed of MS68.  Today 20-30% is a typical range over sealed coins, and MS68s even trade at a discount to sealed.


Chinese collectors prefer to build a full set of coins for each year - all 5 sizes from 1/20 to 1oz.  The strong Chinese buying has exposed shortages of certain of the smaller panda fractional coins, driving up prices on some unexpected dates.  Examples include 2000 and 2002 1/4oz MS68 near $900.  2000 1/20 over $300, 2006 1/10oz over $600.


Even more importantly, Chinese buying has been continuous and relentless over the last 6 months.  The modest dealer inventories that remained at the end of 2012 have been further drained.  As recently as 2 years ago, Pandas could be easily found in local coin shops, and dealers would sell for a small percentage over spot. Today, Pandas are almost never present in shops that are not specialists in Chinese coins.  When talking to local dealers, one will often hear comments such as "we used to have a lot of Chinese coins, but not anymore"  and "when we get them, they usually sell very quickly in a day or two."


A famous quote of Ross Perot comes to mind:  "That whooshing sound you hear is..." ...all of the Panda Coins in North America heading back home to China.  Chinese buyers are not flipping these coins for a quick profit.  They are looking for safe assets to protect wealth.  Just as we are seeing wealthy Chinese buying prime California real estate, Chinese coin buyers have strong hands and are keeping these coins for the long term.

I believe this is setting up the next great leg up in the Chinese coin market.  When the gold re-ignites, as I expect it will when QE3 follows the next crisis, the very thin remaining inventories of Chinese gold coins will disappear, and prices on many ordinary Pandas will skyrocket.

Now is the time to re-enter the market. It may be the last train out at these prices.

Hong Kong Exchange Buys London Metals Exchange

Acquisition of gold and other hard assets is being encouraged by the Chinese government on many levels. Perhaps they are well aware of the debasement game being played by world central banks and see hard assets in Chinese possession as a defensive strategy.

The recent purchase of the London Metals exchange (LME) by the Hong Kong Exchange is just the latest step in what appears to be an ongoing process.  The LME is the one major exchange, other than HK, outside of China, which trades physical gold (COMEX is only paper contracts).  This may be a good way to gain better access to the physical gold market (as well as other key metals).

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303734204577467912492917718.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

"The deal could immediately prop up HKEx to become one of the major global metals and commodities exchanges," Hong Kong Exchanges Chief Executive Charles Li said.


LME accounts globally for 80% of trade in nonferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, as well as other industrial metals.

Chinese Panda Gold Promotional Video

Here is a link to a very professional Chinese language video promoting investment in Gold Pandas. It depicts the sophistication and traditional value of gold Pandas as an investment.  It appears to have credits for the People's Bank of China and the China Gold Coin Incorporation (CGCI).

It reflects the growing important of "Chinese" gold products in China, as well as the general official encouragement of gold ownership.

The video includes English subtitles

Singapore Coin Fair Pandas

In the 1980's and 1990's, China frequently issued special panda commemoratives to mark important international numismatic shows, such as Munich, San Francisco, Basil, and others. This tradition, dormant since 1997, has been revived with and exciting new issue for the 2012 Singapore Coin Fair.

The low mintages and attractive design of this set of pandas should be very appealing to Chinese coin collectors.

2012 Singapore Show Pandas	Mintage
1 oz Silver Panda	10,000
5 oz Silver Panda	2,500
1/2 oz Gold Panda	2,500
5 oz Gold Panda	99

The production of the generic "standard issue" pandas has grown dramatically in recent years to meet staggering demand.  The 2012 1oz Silver pandas will reach an incredible 8,000,000 and the 1/2oz gold 600,000.  The generic 5oz silver:  50,000 and the generic 5oz Gold: 5,000.  Compared to the standard issue 2012 Pandas, the Singapore show numbers are minuscule!  These are on par with 1990's Panda proofs and show medals.

Adding even more potential to these Pandas, collectors have begun to identify unique varieties of each of the Singapore coins.  The 5 oz Silver has 3 known varieties, generated as a result of a broken die during minting.    The one ounce and the gold are also likely to have sub-types not yet identified.  Varieties are good because each type will have a very low mintage, making each a potential rarity.

Demand for these coins at the Signapore show was strong, and the 5oz Gold is now reportedly sold out at the distributor.  Current sales of the other coins continues to be brisk.

This is a rare opportunity to acquire some very special low mintage pandas.  Once the the modest quantities are sold out, prices are likely to rise.

Will China Buy All The Gold?

Selling coins worldwide, I have the opportunity to see which parts of the world are running to gold at any particular point in time.  Sometimes its America, sometimes Europe, sometimes China.  What is interesting (and somewhat disturbing) is that Americans tend to buy late in a run-up when the price is high, but the Chinese buy most when the price is lower.  They buy when the big banks, futures markets, and the Fed are putting gold on sale.

Right now, America is asleep as the worlds currencies continue their slow implosion.  However, China is buying gold with both fists.  Like a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking up every bit of gold they can get from Americans in exchange for bits of US Government paper dollars.

Spring Festival sparks a 'gold rush' in China

The China Daily reports a 50% increase in gold sales at stores during Chinese New Year this year.

"People seem crazy about gold, snatching it up more like a 'cheap cabbage' than such a precious metal,"..

BEIJING - A "gold rush" swept through China during the week-long Lunar New Year holiday thisyear, with demand for precious metals and jewelry surging since the Year of the Dragon began.

Sales of gold, silver and jewelry rose 57.6 percent during the week-long holiday at Caibai, oneof Beijing's best-known gold retailers, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce(MOC) on Saturday.

Other jewelry stores across the country also saw sales boom during the period, with customersfavoring New Year-themed gold bars, gold ingots and other types of Dragon-themed jewelries.

"Long treasured by Chinese, gold is no longer owned only by a privileged few, but has becomea new investment channel open to all," said Guan Qiang, assistant manager at Caibai.

The Spring Festival gives people a chance to preserve and present gold as gifts, offeringhopes that it will increase in value and not be impacted by inflation, Guan said.

During the week-long holiday, which lasted from January 22 to 28, the sales volume in Caibaiand Guohua, another of Beijing's top gold retailers, reached about 600 million yuan ($95.28million).

The figure showed a 49.7-percent increase over that of last year's Spring Festival, said areport released by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Commerce.

Caibai began selling gold bars as investment items during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, butthe trend of buying gold or silver bars during the Spring Festival has really taken off in the pasttwo years, Guan said.

For Guan and his colleagues, the Spring Festival rush was an exciting but exhaustingexperience, as customers flooded the store and surprised clerks with their purchasing enthusiasm.

"With customers crowding and rushing in, we did not even have time to eat and drink," said asales clerk at the gold bar counter surnamed Li.

She said each shop assistant had received hundreds of customers per day and wrote severaltimes more orders than on ordinary days.

"You can hardly even see the gold bars, necklaces and pendants in the display case. People seem crazy about gold, snatching it up more like a 'cheap cabbage' than such a preciousmetal," said Beijing resident Miao Miao.

"You have to quickly decide whether to make a purchase, or it will be taken away by others."

Link to full article